Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
