Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
